Assessment of California MPO Travel Demand Forecasting Models

Susan Handy, Keuntae Kim and Daniel Byrd

Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series from Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis

Abstract: The goal of this project was to assess the capabilities of the travel demand forecasting models (TDMs) used by California’s metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) with respect to forecasting the increase in vehicle miles of travel induced by highway capacity expansion. An expert panel assisted with the development of review questions to be used in assessing the models. These questions were used to assess each of the models currently used by the eighteen MPOs in California based on information found in readily available documents. The assessment found that seven MPOs are using activity-basedmodels, nine are using four-step, trip-based models, and two are using hybrid models. In general, the activity-based models do a better job of capturing possible induced travel effects. Only one model includes explicit feedback between the transportation system and land use patterns. The readily-available documentation of travel demand forecasting models in California is insufficient for fully understanding the variables included in each model component and the structure of feedbacks between components of the models. View the NCST Project Webpage

Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences; Evaluation and assessment; Highway capacity; Land use; Metropolitan planning organizations; Traffic forecasting; Travel demand; Vehicle miles of travel (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-10-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dcm, nep-tre and nep-ure
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