Supply Chain Adjustments to Tariff Shocks: Evidence from Firm Trade Linkages in the 2018-2019 U.S. Trade War

Kyle Handley, Fariha Kamal and Ryan Monarch

Working Papers from U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies

Abstract: We use the 2018-2019 U.S. trade war to examine how supply chains adjustments to a tariff cost shock affect imports and exports. Using confidential firm-trade linked data, we show that the decline in imports of tariffed goods was driven by discontinuations of U.S. buyer–foreign supplier relationships, reduced formation of new relationships, and exits by U.S. firms from import markets altogether. However, tariffed products where imports were concentrated in fewer suppliers had a smaller decline in import growth. We then construct measures of export exposure to import tariffs by linking tariffs paid by importing firms to their exported products. We find that the most exposed products had lower exports in 2018-2019, with most of the impact occurring in 2019.

Keywords: global supply chains; strategic products; tariffs; trade war (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F1 F13 F14 F23 H2 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www2.census.gov/library/working-papers/2024/adrm/ces/CES-WP-24-43.pdf First version, 2024 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Supply chain adjustments to tariff shocks: Evidence from firm trade linkages in the 2018-2019 U.S. trade war (2024)
Working Paper: Supply Chain Adjustments to Tariff Shocks: Evidence from Firm Trade Linkages in the 2018-2019 U.S. Trade War (2023)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cen:wpaper:24-43

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dawn Anderson ().