Growth is Getting Harder to Find, Not Ideas

Teresa C. Fort, Nathan Goldschlag, Jack Liang, Peter K. Schott and Nikolas Zolas

Working Papers from U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies

Abstract: Relatively flat US output growth versus rising numbers of US researchers is often interpreted as evidence that "ideas are getting harder to find." We build a new 46-year panel tracking the universe of U.S. firms' patenting to investigate the micro underpinnings of this claim, separately examining the relationships between research inputs and ideas (patents) versus ideas and growth. Over our sample period, we find that researchers' patenting productivity is increasing, there is little evidence of any secular decline in high-quality patenting common to all firms, and the link between patents and growth is present, differs by type of idea, and is fairly stable. On the other hand, we find strong evidence of secular decreases in output unrelated to patenting, suggesting an important role for other factors. Together, these results invite renewed empirical and theoretical attention to the impact of ideas on growth. To that end, our patent-firm bridge, which will be available to researchers with approved access, is used to produce new, public-use statistics on the Business Dynamics of Patenting Firms (BDS-PF).

Date: 2025-04
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https://www2.census.gov/library/working-papers/2025/adrm/ces/CES-WP-25-21.pdf First version, 2025 (application/pdf)

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