Food Fight: U.S. Exporters' Adjustments to Russia's 2014 Agricultural Import Ban

Emek Basker and Fariha Kamal

Working Papers from U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of Russia's 2014 food-import ban on U.S. firms that exported banned products to Russia. Using confidential customs transaction data, we implement triple-difference and dosage-response approaches to identify how firms adjust to the sudden loss of a market. Following the ban, treated firms experienced a 30 percentage-point decrease in the probability of exporting banned food to Russia relative to control firms. However, there is substantial heterogeneity by pre-ban reliance on the Russian market: heavily reliant firms were significantly less likely to survive once the ban was in place, and survivors experienced large reductions in revenue (19%) and total export value (49%) for each standard deviation increase in Russian market exposure. We find evidence of export redirection to neighboring countries, though it is insufficient to offset losses. Any negative impacts on survivors dissipate by five years post-ban.

Keywords: sanctions; import bans; U.S.-Russia trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F13 F14 F51 L66 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-12
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cen:wpaper:25-79

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