Remote Work and Residential Sorting: IV Evidence From Expiring Office Leases

Richard De Thorpe

Working Papers from U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies

Abstract: How has remote work reshaped residential sorting and housing demand, and what are the implications for state and local governments? To estimate causal effects, I propose a novel instrument for remote work that exploits quasi-random variation in the timing and size of office lease expirations, captured through a Bartik-style exposure measure at the residential block level. Expirations allow tenant firms to reduce office space and switch employees to remote work, generating strong first-stage effects. Remote work causes modest increases in housing and property tax expenditures in exchange for space, homeownership, and public schools, but not other neighborhood characteristics. It significantly increases migration, particularly out of cities and states that levy income taxes. At the neighborhood level, higher 2020 remote work shares cause subsequent residential turnover, demographic clustering, and property tax revenue windfalls. Taken together, the results indicate that remote work induces migration consistent with Tiebout sorting, and accounts for 10% of migration since 2020. Residential choices and tax bases now depend less on employment proximity and more on affordability and tax-benefit linkage.

Date: 2026-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hre and nep-mig
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www2.census.gov/library/working-papers/2026/adrm/ces/CES-WP-26-34.pdf First version, 2026 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cen:wpaper:26-34

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dawn Anderson ().