What Do Economists Think About Tariffs? Insights from the Economic Experts Survey

Philipp Heil, Emilie Antonia Höslinger, Niklas Potrafke, Tuuli Tähtinnen and Tuuli Tähtinen

No 76, EconPol Policy Brief from ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich

Abstract: Key MessagesOn average, experts from the EU expect tariffs on US imports to be around 5 percentage points higher than they would recommendTariff expectations are higher and more varied across European countries for US goods thanfor all importsExpert recommendations for tariffs diverge widely across European countriesUS experts recommend low tariffs on EU imports, despite expecting higher ratesGaps between expected and recommended tariffs highlight policy challenges

Date: 2025
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-eur and nep-int
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