Drivers, Costs, and Coping: An Expert View on Economic Uncertainty

Agnesa Nimanaj, Daria Schaller and Klaus Wohlrabe

No 86, EconPol Policy Brief from ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich

Abstract: Key MessagesExperts rate current economic uncertainty in their country as high, at 60.7 on a 0–100 scale on averageGeopolitical tensions and conflicts are considered the primary driver of uncertaintyKey structural vulnerabilities are weak institutional and governance frameworks, followed by high dependence on commodity importsOn average, experts estimate that uncertainty lowers expected GDP growth by 0.8 percentage pointsEconomies are seen as resilient where shocks can be buffered quickly but weak where resilience must be built over time

Date: 2026
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