Building in Harm’s Way: Insurance Pricing, Housing Supply, and Wildfire Risk in San Diego

Augusto Ospital

EconPol Forum, 2026, vol. 27, issue 03, 67-74

Abstract: Key MessagesRisk-based pricing works best when safer neighborhoods can add housingCompressed wildfire premiums mute price signals and encourage risky developmentSafer neighborhoods are often more supply constrained than the risky urban fringeTargeted upzoning reduces worker costs but mostly reallocates who bears riskFuture wildfire risk increases costs and makes housing constraints more consequential

Date: 2026
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