Real-Time COVID-19 Projections in Tokyo: Lessons for Future Pandemics

Jianing Chu, Hongtao Li and Taisuke Nakata
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Jianing Chu: University of Tokyo
Hongtao Li: University of Tokyo
Taisuke Nakata: University of Tokyo

No CARF-F-623, CARF F-Series from Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo

Abstract: We examine the properties of five real-time COVID-19 infection projections in Tokyo. We find that projections tended to be (i) pessimistic, (ii) less accurate during the fifth infection wave, and (iii) optimistic before the peak and pessimistic after the peak. If policymakers and the public were to utilize real-time projections in future pandemics, it would be useful for them to be aware of the properties of these projections.

Pages: 24
Date: 2026-04
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