The Impact of Cyclones on Local Economic Growth: Evidence from Local Projections

Costanza Naguib, Martino Pelli, David Poirier and Jeanne Tschopp

CIRANO Working Papers from CIRANO

Abstract: We shed new light on the short-term dynamic effects of cyclones on local economic growth in India. We proxy local GDP growth with night-time light intensity data and construct a cyclone index that varies across months and districts depending on windspeed exposures. Using local projections on highly granular data for the period 1993M1-2011M12, we find that yearly estimations hide large short-term differential impacts and that the negative impact of cyclones is the largest between 4 and 8 months after the event. Nous apportons un nouvel éclairage sur les effets dynamiques à court terme des cyclones sur la croissance économique locale en Inde. Nous substituons la croissance du PIB local par des données d'intensité lumineuse nocturne et construisons un indice cyclonique qui varie selon les mois et les districts en fonction de l'exposition à la vitesse du vent. En utilisant des projections locales sur des données très détaillées pour la période 1993M1-2011M12, nous constatons que les estimations annuelles cachent d'importants impacts différentiels à court terme et que l'impact négatif des cyclones est le plus important entre 4 et 8 mois après l'événement.

Keywords: cyclone; night light; India; monthly measurements; local projections; cyclone; éclairage nocturne; Inde; mesures mensuelles; projections locales (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O44 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-10-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-env
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Related works:
Journal Article: The impact of cyclones on local economic growth: Evidence from local projections (2022)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cir:cirwor:2022s-26

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