Estimating flexible income processes from subjective expectations data: evidence from India and Colombia

Manuel Arellano, Orazio Attanasio (orazio.attanasio@yale.edu), Sam Crossman (samuelcrossman@gmail.com) and Víctor Sancibrián
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Orazio Attanasio: Yale University and NBER
Sam Crossman: UK Government Economic Service

Working Papers from CEMFI

Abstract: We develop a methodology for modeling household income processes when subjective probabilistic assessments of future income are available. This allows us to flexibly estimate conditional cdfs directly using elicited individual subjective probabilities, and to obtain empirical measurements of subjective risk and persistence. We then use two longitudinal surveys collected in rural India and rural Colombia to explore the nature of income dynamics in those contexts. Our results suggest linear income processes are rejected in favor of more flexible versions in both cases; subjective income distributions feature heteroskedasticity, conditional skewness and nonlinear persistence.

Keywords: Subjective expectations; income processes; panel data; heterogeneity; nonlinear persistence. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 C81 D15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dev
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Working Paper: Estimating Flexible Income Processes from Subjective Expectations Data: Evidence from India and Colombia (2024)
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