Beyond sectors. A subsectoral analysis of historical occupational data and their relation to economic growth

Alexis Litvine () and Stanley Hinton ()
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Alexis Litvine: University of Cambridge, https://www.hist.cam.ac.uk/people/dr-alexis-litvine
Stanley Hinton: University of Cambridge, https://www.hist.cam.ac.uk/people/stanley-hinton

No 36, Working Papers from Department of Economic and Social History at the University of Cambridge

Abstract: This paper presents a subsectoral analysis of historical occupational data. The approach employs compositional data analysis and new metrics derived from properties of ternary plots, and it offers a more detailed and complex and dynamic image of the relationship between economic growth and structural change. As a result of this, it highlights a series of core sub-sectoral patterns, which were until now often overlooked by traditional sectoral analysis or invisible due to higher levels of data aggregation. We find that longer historical series confirm Rodrik’s pattern of ‘premature deindustrialisation’ (Rodrik 2016), including the rapid movement towards tertiary subsectors for later developers and the diminishing gender gaps in structural change. We develop a typology to identify which subsectors are most correlated to economic growth, and discuss what that may indicate in terms of theories of structural change. The empirical examination of economic development presented in this chapter will add historical depth to ongoing academic and policy-oriented discussions on the nature and contribution of structural changes to economic development.

JEL-codes: N33 O14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-07-03, Revised 2024-07-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-his and nep-pke
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Published in Cambridge Working Paper in Economic & Social History, No. 36

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