Bad neighbors?: How massive migration reshapes political attitudes

Juan Diego Valencia
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Juan Diego Valencia: Universidad de los Andes

No 2026-8, Documentos CEDE from Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE

Abstract: How does a sudden, large-scale inflow of migrants reshape the political attitudes of locals? This paper uses a shift-share design that exploits exogenous variation in arrivals to estimate the effects of Venezuelan migration on political attitudes in Colombia between 2013 and 2019. The results suggest that exposure to the migration shock reduces locals’ support for redistribution, shifts their political ideology to the right, and weakens their support for elections by popular vote. A mediation analysis suggests that negative stereotypes about migrants and other migration-related concerns, including perceived labor market competition, security concerns, and concerns about migrants’ overuse of welfare programs, contribute to explain the decrease in the support for redistribution by increasing in-group identification sentiments among locals. The decrease in the support for elections by popular vote appears to be consistent with locals having less confidence on elections due to doubts about whether elected rulers can ensure an adequate provision of welfare services and maintain public order after the massive migration shock. Finally, the propensity of locals to adhere to anti-left narratives is a key driver of these shifts in political attitudes, including the rightward shift in ideology, which highlights the importance of the associations between the left-wing ideology and the Venezuelan regime in this setting.

Keywords: Migration; Colombia; Political Attitudes; Sequential G-Estimation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 D91 F22 H53 J15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 66
Date: 2026-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mig and nep-pol
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Published in Documentos CEDE - Universidad de los Andes

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:col:000089:022250

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