Dynamics of Regional Business Cycles in Colombian Cities: Identification of Growth Rates, Recession Propagation, and Cluster Analysis

Juan David Valencia-Beltrán
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Juan David Valencia-Beltrán: Independiente

Revista de Economía del Rosario, 2024, vol. 27, issue 1, No 2, 45 pages

Abstract: Using a Markov switching panel, this research analyzes business cycle dynamics in 23 Colombian cities and metropolitan areas. First, we find heterogeneous values by identifying expansion and recession growth rates using employment and economic covariables. Second, cluster analysis groups cities with shared economic patterns and key explanatory factors. Finally, we examine how historical recessions propagate across these clusters. The findings highlight diverse growth rates and common recession factors, providing a comprehensive view of urban economic dynamics. This approach contributes to more effective policy formulation by considering regional variability in economic cycles.

Keywords: business cycle; regional dynamics; cluster analysis; economic recession (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C55 E32 O54 R11 R12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:col:000151:022163

DOI: 10.12804/revistas.urosario.edu.co/e

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