External cycles and commodities in Latin America and the Caribbean: a cointegration analysis with breaks

Fernando Delbianco () and Andrés Fioriti ()

Revista Lecturas de Economía, 2018, issue 88, 51-76

Abstract: Abstract: In this paper, we seek to characterize the relationship between the cyclical behavior of foreign accounts and commodity price indexes for Latin America and the Caribbean. Using several tests of stationarity that allow for the presence of breaks, we conclude that commodity prices are cointegrated with the current accounts in Latin American countries, suggesting that developmentalism plans did not obtain the desired productive diversification and that the region still relies heavily on commodities to determine its foreign position. Another important result supports the findings of Delbianco and Fioriti (2014, 2015) that the region had suffered two sudden stops in the last 60 years, both driven by shifts in commodity prices. Resumen En este trabajo se busca caracterizar la relación entre los comportamientos cíclicos de la cuenta corriente y los índices de precios de los productos básicos (commodities) para América Latina y el Caribe. Usando diferentes test de estacionariedad que permiten la presencia de quiebres, se encuentra evidencia de que los precios de los commodities se encuentran cointegrados con las cuentas corrientes de los países de Latinoamérica, lo que sugiere que los planes desarrollistas no generaron la diversificación productiva deseada y que la posición externa de la región todavía depende fuertemente de los productos básicos. Los resultados también apoyan los hallazgos de Delbianco y Fioriti (2014, 2015) que sostienen que la región ha sufrido dos quiebres estructurales en los últimos 60 anos, ambos derivados de cambios en los precios de los commodities.

Keywords: sector externo; quiebres estructurales; cointegración; América Latina (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C12 C58 E44 F44 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Journal Article: External cycles and commodities in Latin America and the Caribbean: a cointegration analysis with breaks (2018)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:col:000174:016022

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