El impacto cambiario de la regla fiscal en Colombia

David Cano Ortiz ()

Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, 2012, vol. 4, issue 1, 133-158

Abstract: RESUMENEl objetivo de este documento es determinar si la regla fiscal puede llegar a tener un impacto sobre la tasa de cambio, que logre mitigar, en parte, los efectos de la enfermedad holandesa. Para ello, se realiza un experimento contrafactual simulando la implementación en Colombia, en los últimos treinta anos, de una regla fiscal como la aprobada por el Comité Técnico Interinstitucional, a través de un modelo de tasa de cambio real de equilibrio y de un análisis de cointegración en un modelo VEC. Se concluye que la regla fiscal, efectivamente, lograría mitigar la apreciación, pero a la vez podría incrementar la volatilidad cambiaria.******The target of this paper is to establish whether the fiscal rule could have eventually an impact on the exchange rate so it could ease the effects of the dutch disease. A counter-factual experiment is carried out by simulating the implementation in Colombia during the last thirty years of a fiscal rule alike the one proposed by the Comité Técnico Interinstitucional, through an equilibrium exchange rate model and cointegration analysis in a VEC model. It is found that the fiscal rule would actually mitigate the appreciation, but it could also increase the exchange rate volatility.

Keywords: Fiscal rule; equilibrium real exchange rate; dutch disease; NATREX; cointegration; VEC: regla fiscal; tasa de cambio real de equilibrio; enfermedad holandesa; NATREX; cointegración; VEC. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C54 E62 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:col:000443:010359

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