Creating a GTAP Baseline for 2014 to 2050 With Special Reference to Canada

Peter B. Dixon and Maureen T. Rimmer

Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers from Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre

Abstract: By 2020, the GTAP team had created 4 comparable GTAP databases, referring to the years 2004, 2007, 2011 and 2014. They had also produced a preliminary 2017 database. The aim of the project reported in this paper was to use this time series of databases to derive and apply methods for: 1: estimating trends at a disaggregated level in industry technologies and consumer preferences; 2: creating baseline forecasts incorporating a wide range of macro, demographic and energy forecasts from specialist organizations together with disaggregated technology and preference trends; and 3: updating and checking GTAP databases, and establishing validation methods for assessing the performance of baseline forecasts. Towards these objectives, we produced several interim reports and 3 final reports. This paper explains our methods and reviews the project findings.

Keywords: GTAP data; Estimating technology trends; Baseline forecasting; Updating and validation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C68 D57 D58 E17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int
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