The Economic Consequences of The Second Trump Administration: A Preliminary Assessment
Edited by Gary Gensler,
Simon Johnson,
Ugo Panizza and
Beatrice Weder di Mauro
in CEPR Press Books from Centre for Economic Policy Research
Abstract:
==> REVISED & EXPANDED EDITION The Economic Consequences of the Second Trump Administration: A Preliminary Assessment delivers a timely, expert analysis of the economic shifts unfolding following President Trump’s return to office. Amid sweeping tariffs, sharp breaks in global alliances, assertions of presidential supremacy, government downsizing, deregulation, and risks to the rule of law, this volume offers thoughtful, evidence-based insights into how these policies may affect growth, trade, investment, inflation, stability, and the role of the dollar.
Date: 2025 Written 2025-12
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https://cepr.org/node/443345 (application/pdf)
Chapters in this book:
- Ch 1 Introduction: The economic consequences of the second Trump administration: key assessments
- Gary Gensler, Simon Johnson, Ugo Panizza and Beatrice Weder di Mauro
- Ch 2 The rule of law
- John Coates
- Ch 3 Presidential supremacy over administrative agencies
- Gary Gensler and Lev Menand
- Ch 4 Immigration and border policies
- Anna Maria Mayda and Giovanni Peri
- Ch 5 The economic effects of rapid federal downsizing
- Josh Bivens
- Ch 6 Will the United States continue to lead in science?
- David Baker and Simon Johnson
- Ch 7 Artificial intelligence development and policy landscape
- Gary Gensler
- Ch 8 The (non) effect of tariffs on manufacturing employment
- Michael Strain
- Ch 9 Fiscal policy and debt sustainability
- Fatás, Antonio and Ugo Panizza
- Ch 10 The Financial sector and global dollar system
- Gary Gensler, Lev Menand and Joshua Younger
- Ch 11 The Federal Reserve, the new administration, and the outlook for the economy and monetary policy
- William B. English
- Ch 12 Dollar dominance and the Trump administration
- Steven B. Kamin
- Ch 13 Consumer financial protection
- Neale Mahoney
- Ch 14 Cryptocurrency under the Trump administration
- Richard Portes
- Ch 15 Competition policy
- Jonathan B. Baker
- Ch 16 Health care
- Jonathan Gruber
- Ch 17 Downsizing the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- Valerie J. Karplus and Costa Samaras
- Ch 18 Changes in federal climate policy
- John E.T. Bistline
- Ch 19 Rural economies and communities
- Mary Hendrickson and David Peters
- Ch 20 Measuring by executive order
- Alberto Cavallo and Roberto Rigobon
- Ch 21 The global public good
- Barry Eichengreen
- Ch 22 From MFN to “reciprocal tariffsâ€
- Kevin O'Rourke
- Ch 23 Trumpian tariffs: What, why, what next?
- Richard Baldwin
- Ch 24 The aftermath of tariffs
- Kimberly Clausing
- Ch 25 Second estimations of the effects of reciprocal tariffs
- Antoine Bouet, Balthazar de Vaulchier, Houssein Guimbard, Cristina Mitaritonna and Yu Zheng
- Ch 26 Who pays for US tariffs?
- Marcelo Olarreaga and Sara Santander
- Ch 27 Advanced technology as Europe’s strategic imperative
- Moritz Schularick, Tom Enders, zu Fürstenberg, Jeannette and Obermann, René
- Ch 28 National security tariffs on the auto industry
- Keith Head, Thierry Mayer, Vincent Vicard and Pauline Wibaux
- Ch 29 Strategic autonomy for Europe requires economic growth
- Luis Garicano
- Ch 30 Trade wars and European monetary policy
- Paul Bergin and Giancarlo Corsetti
- Ch 31 Rethinking the governance and funding of European rearmament
- Armin Steinbach, Guntram B. Wolff and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
- Ch 32 Economic principles for European rearmament
- Alain Quinet, Xavier Jaravel, Moritz Schularick and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
- Ch 33 The economics of the European defence buildup
- Ethan Ilzetzki
- Ch 34 Spending targets versus military capacity
- Ralph Luetticke and Müller, Gernot
- Ch 35 Ukraine and Europe
- Yuriy Gorodnichenko
- Ch 36 Canada
- Mark Manger
- Ch 37 Greenland
- Bæk Heilmann, Nick, Bo Lidegaard and Mira Kleist
- Ch 38 Japan
- Kenichi Ueda
- Ch 39 Emerging markets
- Robin Brooks
- Ch 40 Impact on China
- Yasheng Huang
- Ch 41 India
- Arvind Subramanian
- Ch 42 The Mexican economy and the impact of Trump’s policies: An update
- Alejandro Werner
- Ch 43 Latin America: Tariffs and industrialisation
- Sebastian Edwards
- Ch 44 The impact of US foreign aid cuts on global health
- Charles Kenny and Justin Sandefur
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