Dissent in Monetary Policy Decisions: Effects, Channels and Implications

Christophe Blot (), Paul Hubert and Fabien Labondance ()
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Christophe Blot: Sciences Po, OFCE
Fabien Labondance: Université Marie et Louis Pasteur, CRESE (UR3190), F-25000 Besançon, France

No 2025-07, Working Papers from CRESE

Abstract: We investigate whether dissent in monetary policy committees affects asset prices. We exploit a feature of the ECB communication for identification: the revelation of dissent during press conferences is separated from policy decision announcements. Follow- ing a narrative approach, we compute a novel granular index of ECB dissent for each instrument and identify the dissent direction. Using tick data, we isolate asset price changes exactly when dissent is revealed. Dissent has a strong negative effect on stock prices, that operates specifically around status quo decisions. Dissent is a key driver of stock prices on these days, explaining one-third of their variation.

Keywords: Asset prices; Disagreement; Monetary Policy Committee; Bad news; European Central Bank (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D70 E43 E52 G14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 19 pages
Date: 2025-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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Related works:
Working Paper: Dissent in Monetary Policy Decisions: Effects, Channels and Implications (2025)
Working Paper: Dissent in Monetary Policy Decisions: Effects, Channels and Implications (2025)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:crb:wpaper:2025-07

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