The Quest for Freedom and Migration Aspirations: Evidence from the MENA Region

Hajare El Hadri () and Réda Marakbi ()
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Hajare El Hadri: Université Marie et Louis Pasteur, CRESE UR3190, F-25000 Besançon, France
Réda Marakbi: Université Artois, ISEG School of management, LEM UMR9221, F-62000 Arras, France

No 2026-11, Working Papers from CRESE

Abstract: This article develops and empirically tests a theory of migration under repression. It argues that migration aspirations are shaped by perceived freedom repression and that such perceptions can make exit more attractive when voice appears blocked, risky, or ineffective. The theoretical framework yields four hypotheses, which we test using Arab Barometer data from 2021– 2024 covering about 34,000 respondents in twelve Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. Empirically, we construct a Freedom Repression Index and examine how perceived repression shapes migration aspirations across different freedom dimensions and migration routes. Four findings stand out. First, perceived repression significantly increases migration aspirations, with substantive effects comparable to standard economic push factors. Second, the association is strongest for personal liberties, especially freedom of expression and freedom of religion, whereas restrictions on collective political rights such as protest are less strongly associated with migration aspirations. Third, repression shifts intentions toward irregular rather than regular migration routes. Fourth, this relationship is context-dependent: it is strongest in stable yet restrictive settings and weakens in conflict-affected contexts where insecurity dominates. By disaggregating freedom dimensions and distinguishing regular from irregular intentions, the article connects exit-voice theory to micro-level evidence and clarifies when, which, and how perceived repression shapes migration aspirations in the MENA region.

Keywords: freedom; repression; migration aspirations; irregular migration; MENA. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 39 pages
Date: 2026-10
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