What Factors Explain the Drop in Disability Insurance Rolls from 2015 to 2019?

Siyan Liu and Laura D. Quinby

Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College from Center for Retirement Research

Abstract: In 2015, the number of individuals receiving Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) benefits began to drop for the first time in two decades. This drop was caused by a wave of terminations, as beneficiaries aged into the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) program, combined with a steep decline in the incidence rate (the number of new DI awards relative to the insured population). Yet, the forces driving down the incidence rate remain poorly understood. Prior studies suggest that three factors could have played a role: 1) demographic shifts due to population aging; 2) a strong economy following the Great Recession; and 3) policy changes at the Social Security Administration (SSA). Using data provided by the SSA’s Office of Disability Programs, this study examines how each of these factors contributed to the drop in the incidence rate.

Pages: 34 pages
Date: 2023-05
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