The Lifecycle of Protests in the Digital Age

Pierre C. Boyer (), Germain Gauthier (), Yves Le Yaouanq (), Vincent Rollet () and Benoît Schmutz-Bloch ()
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Pierre C. Boyer: CREST, Ecole Polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, France
Germain Gauthier: Bocconi University, Italy
Yves Le Yaouanq: CREST, Ecole Polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, France
Vincent Rollet: MIT, USA
Benoît Schmutz-Bloch: CREST, Ecole Polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, France

No 2026-01, Working Papers from Center for Research in Economics and Statistics

Abstract: We propose a theory of the emergence, size, intensity, and duration of modern protest movements. Moderates and radicals are both needed to sustain large coalitions, but when radicals resort to violence, they drive moderates away. Social media, by lowering the cost of mobilization, amplifies this tension: it reveals both the potential for protest and the proportion of radicals among protesters — sparking a mass movement while enabling radicals to coordinate on violent action that precipitates the movement’s demise. We illustrate this phenomenon with the 2018 French Yellow Vests uprising. Online mobilization initially helped organize large, peaceful protests, but these protests triggered a second wave of more radical online activity. We show that half of the movement’s subsequent radicalization online occurred through the departure of moderates, driven by their exposure to radical content.

Keywords: Protests; Learning traps; Crowding-out; Violence; Social media; NLP (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 D74 L82 Z13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 95 pages
Date: 2026-01-15
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