Fields and Foreign Lands: Pre-Industrial Climate Risk and International Migration

Miriam Manchin (), Alex Newnham and Elena Nikolova

No 503, Development Working Papers from Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano

Abstract: We study how pre-industrial climate risk during 1500-1800 influenced historical bilateral inward migration and present-day international migration stocks in Europe. Using high-resolution data, we find that one standard deviation increase in historical precipitation decreases the share of today’s migrants in a given location by 0.48 percentage points and also negatively influences historical migration flows. The results only hold in historically rural locations and are driven by climate variability during growing season, suggesting that climate risk affected migration through agriculture. Our findings suggest that the persistent effect of historical climate risk on current migration patterns is through differences in historical prosperity.

Keywords: International Migration; Climate Risk; Historical Migration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F22 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 62 pages
Date: 2025-06-04
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:csl:devewp:503

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