Gendered fertility intentions and child schooling: insights on the quantity–quality trade-off from Ethiopia

Eva Boonaert, Kaat van Hoyweghen, Ashenafi DUGUMA Feyisa, Peter Goos and Miet Maertens
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Eva Boonaert: Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven
Kaat van Hoyweghen: Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven
Ashenafi DUGUMA Feyisa: Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven
Peter Goos: Department of Biostatistics, KU Leuven
Miet Maertens: epartment of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Leuven

JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, 2025, vol. 91, issue 1, 1-48

Abstract: Fertility decline in human history is a complex enigma. Different triggers have been proposed, among others the increased demand for human capital resulting in parents making a quantity–quality (QQ) trade-off. This is the first study that examines the existence of a QQ trade-off and the possible gender bias by analyzing fertility intentions rather than fertility outcomes. We rely on the unified growth theory to understand the QQ trade-off conceptually and a discrete choice experiment conducted among 426 respondents in Ethiopia to analyze fertility intentions empirically. We confirm the existence of a QQ trade-off only when the number of children is less than six and find that intentions are gendered in two ways: (i) boys are preferred over girls, and (ii) men are willing to trade-off more education in return for more children. Results imply that a focus on both stimulating intentions for education, especially girls' education, and on family size intentions is important to accelerate the demographic transition.

Keywords: Choice experiment; Demographic transition; Education; Family planning; Sex preferences; Unified growth theory (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 J13 J16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-03-25
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ctl:louvde:v:91:y:2025:i:1:p:1-48

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