Gazing at long-term linkages between agricultural land use and population growth in India: an inverted “U-shape” relationship

Arjun Jana and Srinivas Goli
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Arjun Jana: International Institute for Population Sciences

JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, 2025, vol. 91, issue 4, 596-640

Abstract: This study investigates the linkages between changes in agricultural land use and population growth in India. We have employed long-term time series and a panel dataset of 1869 samples (267 districts × 7 time points from 1961 to 2021) to determine this. We theorize that there is an inverted “U-shape” relationship between changes in population growth and agricultural land. Our findings suggest a positive impact of population growth on the change in cultivated land. However, this relationship was not static during 1961–2021. We found a two-stage split relationship with a breakpoint in 1981. Prior to the 1980s, there was a 12% expansion in cultivated land in response to a unit increase in population growth. During the post-1980s, with a unit decline in population growth, there was a 5% reduction in cultivated land. The findings were reaffirmed through several robustness checks: analyses using alternative outcome variables, alternative break points in a segmented regression model, and spatial modeling. From a policy perspective, this study advances the need for the reduction of population growth rate in high-fertility states and the adoption of superior and green technology for agricultural intensification and diversification to stop cropland expansion at the cost of environmental sustainability.

Keywords: Population growth; Malthusian theory; Boserupian theory; Agricultural land; Land-population relationship; dynamic panel data analysis; Spatial econometrics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 Q15 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-12-05
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https://doi.org/10.1017/dem.2024.20 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Gazing at Long-term Linkages Between Agricultural Land Use and Population Growth in India: An Inverted ‘U-Shape’ Relationship (2023)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ctl:louvde:v:91:y:2025:i:4:p:596-640

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