Past Unemployment Influences on the Incidence of Belgian Employees Unemployment

Eric Cahuzac
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Eric Cahuzac: Université des Sciences Sociales de Toulouse, LIRHE

No 1995027, LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES from Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)

Abstract: How predictive are spells of unemployment on future unemployment ? This is the focus of this paper, where unemployment risks are evaluated on a panel of white-collar workers. Individual unemployment propensity is taken into account by an individual specific effect. Therefor a fixed effect conditional Logit model is implemented to avoid spurious state dependence. First the paper examines the persistence of order one in unemployment over periods of four of five years . Then it asks whether the behaviour of an individual facing unemployment follows a Markov process or not. Our results suggest that, given the white-collar current status, his past history in unemployment is not informative about future unemployment. However data collection procedure and unobserved individual characteristics seem to generate a higher first order persistence in unemployment.

Pages: 18
Date: 1995-01-01
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ctl:louvir:1995027

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