One Million Lives Saved Per Year: A Cost–Benefit Analysis of the Global Plan to End Tuberculosis, 2023–2030 and Beyond

Carel Pretorius, Nimalan Arinaminpathy, Sandip Mandal, Suvanand Sahu, Madhukar Pai, Roland Mathiasson and Brad Wong

Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, 2023, vol. 14, issue S1, 337-354

Abstract: This report presents a cost–benefit analysis of increased spending on tuberculosis (TB) using impacts and costs drawn from the Global Plan to End Tuberculosis, 2023–2030. The analysis indicates that the return on TB spending is substantial with a centrally estimated benefit–cost ratio (BCR) of 46, meaning every US$ 1 invested in TB yields US$ 46 in benefits. Alternative specifications using different baselines, interventions, cost profiles, and discount rates still yield robustly high BCRs, in the range of 28–84. This report also shows that TB investment would avert substantial mortality, estimated at 27.3 million averted deaths over the 28-year period between 2023 and 2050 inclusive: almost 1 million averted deaths per year on average. Accounting for all estimated direct and indirect costs, the cost per averted death is slightly over US$ 2000. Interventions to address TB represent exceptional value-for-money.

Date: 2023
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