Firm Resiliency: The Role of Spillovers

Meghana Ayyagari, Yuxi Cheng and Ariel Weinberger

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 2025, vol. 60, issue 3, 1527-1557

Abstract: Using high-frequency data on over 7 million import transactions, we study the disruptions to U.S. firms’ trade patterns and growth immediately following the initial COVID-19 trade shock. While large firms were not direct recipients of government fiscal support, they experienced fewer disruptions when located in counties where small businesses (SMEs) received government stimulus loans under the Paycheck Protection Program. These effects were largest in counties with greater share of SMEs and stronger input–output linkages between large firms and SMEs. Our results point to local spillovers between SMEs and large firms as being an important determinant of firm resiliency during crises.

Date: 2025
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