Behavioral effects in time preference for losses depend on direction of delay discounting and level of data analysis

Zhuoyi Fan, Xuhui Zhang, Yue Shen and Junyi Dai

Judgment and Decision Making, 2025, vol. 20, -

Abstract: While most research on time preference has focused on gains, understanding time preference for losses is also crucial in practice. Some studies have shown that people prefer to bear a loss earlier rather than later, suggesting negative delay discounting. Nonetheless, most previous research either disallowed an exhibition of negative discounting or analyzed data suggesting opposite directions of discounting together. Furthermore, such research tended to draw conclusions based on aggregate data, although individual behavioral patterns could differ starkly from aggregate ones. To improve knowledge on individual time preference for losses, we conducted 3 experiments examining how systematically changing attribute values affected such preference. Using a choice method with delayed losses, Experiment 1 revealed 3 behavioral effects (i.e., the magnitude, common difference, and delay duration effects) at the aggregate level. For each effect, opposite changes in discount rate were found in data suggesting positive versus negative discounting. Similar results emerged in Experiment 2 using a matching task with delayed losses. Experiment 3 adopted a special form of the matching paradigm, where the amount of an immediate loss should be filled (i.e., an evaluation method). Distinct influences of loss amount were again found under opposite directions of delay discounting. Additionally, a reverse magnitude effect was found more often in Experiment 3 than the other experiments under positive discounting, illustrating the distinctiveness of the evaluation method. Finally, individual analyses revealed more diverse behavioral patterns than aggregate analyses in each study. This underscored the importance of understanding time preference for losses based on individual data.

Date: 2025
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