 A methodological approach to ratio biasGabriella Passerini, Laura Macchi and Maria Bagassi Judgment and Decision Making, 2012, vol. 7, issue 5, 602-617 Abstract: The ratio-bias (RB) phenomenon is considered to provide systematic evidence of irrationality. When judging the probability of a low-probability event, many people judge it as less likely when it is expressed as a ratio of small numbers (e.g., 1-in-10) than when it is expressed as a ratio of large numbers (e.g., 10-in-100). Four experiments show that the phenomenon is increased by the experimental paradigm, which misleads subjects regarding the aim of the task by inducing equal-ratio neglect. One factor is constant across the texts of the Experiment 1–3: a particular sentence that induces subjects to neglect the equal ratio and invites them to express feelings about the outcome of the target event rather than giving a rational answer. This intent is strengthened by the formulation of the question (Experiment 1), which explicitly asks the subject to express the feeling connected to the lotteries and the absence of a third option (Experiment 1, 4), the right one, which expresses the “indifference” between the two options. In Experiment 4, the task lacks only the third option, and, simply by adding the option that allows subjects to express the correct answer, the RB disappears. Date: 2012 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cup:judgdm:v:7:y:2012:i:5:p:602-617_4 Access Statistics for this article More articles in Judgment and Decision Making from Cambridge University Press Cambridge University Press, UPH, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 8BS UK. |
Is your work missing from RePEc? Here is how to contribute.
Questions or problems? Check the EconPapers FAQ or send mail to .
EconPapers is hosted by the
School of Business at Örebro University.