Game interrupted: The rationality of considering the future

Brandon Almy and Joachim I. Krueger

Judgment and Decision Making, 2013, vol. 8, issue 5, 521-526

Abstract: The “problem of points”, introduced by Paccioli in 1494 and solved by Pascal and Fermat 160 years later, inspired the modern concept of probability. Incidentally, the problem also shows that rational decision-making requires the consideration of future events. We show that naïve responses to the problem of points are more future oriented and thus more rational in this sense when the problem itself is presented in a future frame instead of the canonical past frame. A simple nudge is sufficient to make decisions more rational. We consider the implications of this finding for hypothesis testing and predictions of replicability.

Date: 2013
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