Chapter II. The World Economy

Barrell, Ray; Eastwood, Fiona

Chapter II. The World Economy

Ray Barrell and Fiona Eastwood

National Institute Economic Review, 1988, vol. 124, 21-35

Abstract: Output growth in 1987 appears to have been very strong generally in the major seven economies. Provisional national income data for the fourth quarter in France, Germany and Japan have all indicated a stronger performance than we anticipated in our last Review in February. Our November forecast of Japanese growth in 1987 was 1¼ per cent too low, and as further information has become available we have revised up our forecasts for growth in 1988 and 1989 by 1½ to 2 per cent per annum. The Japanese have been willing to respond to US pressure and adopt art expansionary fiscal stance, and investment growth has also been rapid. We have also revised our forecast of US growth in 1988 and 1989. We are now expecting growth in the US to be ½ a per cent higher in 1988 than we were in February, but because we are now more pessimistic about imports we are forecasting a slowdown in activity into 1989.

Date: 1988
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