 The World EconomyRay Barrell, R. Anderton, Guglielmo Maria Caporale and Jw in't Veld National Institute Economic Review, 1992, vol. 142, 34-62 Abstract: The realignment of the ERM in September, and the subsequent withdrawal of the UK and Italy from the mechanism, have caused a degree of uncertainty in the financial markets. In our last forecast we were anticipating a realignment of the lira at the end of September (National Institute Economic Review No. 141) but we expected a more orderly adjustment of exchange rates than took place. We analysed the effects of a realignment in a note in the August 1992 Review, and we expected the consequences to stimulate activity in Europe. The uncertainties surrounding the exchange-rate outlook make our main case less sanguine than it would otherwise have been. The resulting prospects for slow growth in Europe have to be combined with a modest recovery in the US and Canada and continued below capacity growth in Japan. The success of Governor Clinton in the US elections bodes well for growth in the US, at least in the short term, and this may offset the poor performance elsewhere in the OECD. However, the distinct possibility of a trade war following on from the collapse of the GATT round cannot be ignored, and such an outbreak would make our forecast much more pessimistic. Date: 1992 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cup:nierev:v:142:y:1992:i::p:34-62_3 Access Statistics for this article More articles in National Institute Economic Review from National Institute of Economic and Social Research Cambridge University Press, UPH, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 8BS UK. Contact information at EDIRC. |
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