Moving Towards EMU: The Challenges Ahead

John Arrowsmith and Christopher Taylor

National Institute Economic Review, 1996, vol. 158, 64-90

Abstract: The transition to monetary union in Europe, which began formally when Stage 2 started in January 1993, is now well over half way to completion, according to the deadlines set in the Maastricht Treaty. The first decisions on Stage 3 are approaching fast, yet the prospects for its commencement are still very unclear, and many important practical and policy issues are still in doubt. This article provides an overview of the EMU debate, covering the latest developments on convergence (Section 1), the main institutional matters still to be resolved before Stage 3 begins (Section 2), the key problems awaiting policy-makers in Stage 3 (Section 3), and finally the controversy about the economic rationale of EMU (Section 4). It concludes that the UK Government was wise to defer a decision on whether to participate in Stage 3 until the implications became clearer, but that it would be unwise to abandon the option, which it presently risks doing, by design or default.

Date: 1996
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