Here is the news: forecast revisions in the Bank of England survey of external forecasters

Gianna Boero, Jeremy Smith and Kenneth F. Wallis

National Institute Economic Review, 2008, vol. 203, 68-77

Abstract: This article analyses the forecasts of inflation and GDP growth supplied by the individual respondents to the Bank of England's quarterly Survey of External Forecasters, 1996-2005, using a recently released dataset. This comprises a conventional incomplete panel dataset, with an additional dimension arising from the collection of repeated forecasts for the last quarter of each year. This fixed-event forecast structure allows study of the forecast revision process, its weak and strong efficiency, and its relation to macroeconomic news. The collection of density forecasts as well as point forecasts allows study of the revision process of forecast uncertainty.

Date: 2008
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