Prospects for the UK Economy

Simon Kirby and Rachel Whitworth

National Institute Economic Review, 2011, vol. 218, F54-F76

Abstract: The economic news flow since the publication of our July Review has been predominately negative, focusing on the deteriorating Euro Area sovereign debt crisis. This has added to further disappointing data on UK domestic activity. Quarterly economic growth has averaged just 0.3 per cent in the first three quarters of 2011 (see figure 1). Anaemic GDP growth is due to both the public and private sectors simultaneously consolidating their balance sheets. Looking ahead, the crisis in the Euro Area will play a central role. We expect the UK economy to expand by 0.9 per cent this year and 0.8 per cent in 2012, before increasing by 2.6 per cent in 2013. This will be the most protracted recovery since the end of the First World War (see figure 2).

Date: 2011
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