Atypical violence and conflict dynamics: evidence from Jerusalem

Chagai M. Weiss, Neal Tsur, Dan Miodownik, Yonatan Lupu and Evgeny Finkel

Political Science Research and Methods, 2024, vol. 12, issue 2, 399-406

Abstract: What is the impact of uncommon but notable violent acts on conflict dynamics? We analyze the impact of the murder of a Palestinian child on the broader dynamics of Israeli-Palestinian violence in Jerusalem. By using novel micro-level event data and utilizing Discrete Fourier Transform and Bayesian Poisson Change Point Analysis, we compare the impact of the murder to that of other lethal but more typical Israeli-Palestinian events. We demonstrate that the murder had a large and durable impact on the average number of daily riots in Jerusalem, whereas the other events caused smaller, short-term effects. We demonstrate that scholars should devote more attention to the analysis of atypical violent acts and indicate a set of tools for conducting such analyses.

Date: 2024
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