Models evaluating reliability of monoand multiproduct chains at industrial enterprise

M. A. Khalikov () and M. A. Nikiforova ()

Scientific notes of the Russian academy of entrepreneurship, vol. 17, issue 1

Abstract: In this article, the problem of risk reliability estimation functioning in production-technological systems of mono- and multiproduct enterprises is reviewed. The role of reliability is played by the consistency of input-output material-monetary flows through individual links of the production-technological enterprise chain. It is reasonably that this reliability / risk interpretation at production-technological enterprise chain meets the target criterion of its activities: to ensure planned financial result in terms of internai and external environment changes, it is suggested to measure production unit operation reliability loss risk by using average loss value or accumulated losses of the initiai process chain segment, including this unit. The reliability loss risk of production unit operation is structured by individual components such as the production unit risk that is initiated by production-technological and organizational-technical conditions of production organization, and injected risk generated by previous production units.. The estimation of reliability loss risk of enterprise's production-technological system functioning is carried out by its final unit. To assess the overall production unit risk the numerical algorithm is suggested to use. It is based on probability theory tools, expert procedures and methods of mathematical statistics. In this work there are models and calculation formulas for evaluation the risk of individual unit and whole production-technological system in case of both monoproduct and multiproduct enerprises.

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