Dynamics of Urban Atmospheric Conditions under Emission Mitigation Pathways

Siying Wang, Yuejia Wu, Tianjia Zhang, Jiashun Hui, Chuanzhe Lin, Wanran Tu, Kewei Feng and Patrick Qi

European Journal of Public Health and Environmental Research, 2025, vol. 1, issue 2, 100-113

Abstract: Rapid urbanization and industrialization have led to complex atmospheric pollution characterized by coincident high levels of PM2.5 and ozone (O3) . This study establishes a high-resolution "Emission-Meteorology-Chemistry" simulation system using the WRF-CMAQ model to evaluate the air quality response to three mitigation pathways-structural adjustment (S1), end-of-pipe control (S2), and deep decarbonization (S3)-in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region. The results indicate that while all scenarios reduce PM2.5, the Deep Decarbonization (S3) pathway provides the most significant co-benefits, reducing urban PM2.5 by 58.5% to 32.1μg/m3. In contrast, O3 exhibits a strong non-linear response; the S2 scenario triggers a "Chemical Penalty," increasing peak MDA8 ozone by +5.2% due to the weakened NOx titration effect in VOC-limited urban cores. Integrated Process Rate (IPR) and EKMA analysis reveal that only the S3 pathway, through synchronous NOx and VOCs reductions (>60%), successfully crosses the "EKMA Ridgeline" and suppresses the atmospheric oxidizing capacity (AOC) by slowing the HOx radical propagation rate by 84.8%. The findings suggest that achieving carbon neutrality goals is a prerequisite for overcoming the ozone bottleneck. This study proposes a "Spatially Differentiated and Temporally Dynamic" control strategy, prioritizing VOCs abatement in urban cores and strict management of industrial emissions during peak photochemical hours to achieve synergistic pollution and carbon reduction.

Keywords: WRF-CMAQ; deep decarbonization; non-linear response; synergistic control; Yangtze River Delta (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dba:ejpher:v:1:y:2025:i:2:p:100-113

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