Demographic composition and projections of car use in Austria

Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Jiang Leiwen and Brian C. O´Neill

No WP-2002-034, MPIDR Working Papers from Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany

Abstract: Understanding the factors driving demand for transportation in industrialized countries is important in addressing a range of environmental issues. Though non-economic factors have received less attention, recent research has found that demographic factors are important. While some studies have applied a detailed demographic composition to analyze past developments of transportation demand, projections for the future are mainly restricted to aggregate demographic variables such as numbers of people and/or households. In this paper, we go beyond previous work by combining cross-sectional analysis of car use in Austria with detailed household projections. We show that projections of car use are sensitive to the particular type of demographic disaggregation employed. For example, the highest projected car use - an increase of about 20 per cent between 1996 and 2046 - is obtained if we apply the value of car use per household to the projected numbers of households. However, if we apply a composition that differentiates households by size, age and sex of the household head, car use is projected to increase by less than 3 per cent during the same time period. (Keywords: household projections, car use demand, demographic composition)

Keywords: Austria (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J1 Z0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 45 pages
Date: 2002
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Journal Article: Demographic composition and projections of car use in Austria (2004)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2002-034

DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2002-034

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