Demographic transitions and lifestyle factors: quantifying the burden of smoking-attributable diseases on Germany's healthcare system

Carla Rowold and Joan E. Madia
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Carla Rowold: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany

No WP-2024-036, MPIDR Working Papers from Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany

Abstract: This study focuses on the long-term effects of the Baby Boomers' (born between 1960 and 1979) historical smoking prevalence in Germany. It emphasizes the linkage to an anticipated increase in smoking-attributable diseases and corresponding healthcare costs by 2035. Our analysis leverages data from the German Federal Statistical Office, the Mikrozensus, and the Federal Health Report, along with treatment costs, to document the persistently high smoking rates among this cohort. In addition, it also projects the ensuing economic burden on healthcare from conditions such as COPD and lung cancer. Highlighting the necessity for targeted public health interventions aimed at smoking cessation and lifestyle modifications, this study draws on UK strategies, including support for quitting. We suggest Germany could adopt similar measures to address these challenges effectively. These insights aim to guide policymakers in developing targeted interventions to reduce the future healthcare burden. We estimate smoking attributable healthcare costs to rise by 56% until 2035 totaling €193 billion over the period. Although our projections are conservative compared to other literature, incorporating data from Effertz (2019) suggests that annual costs could skyrocket to as much as €46 billion. Adequate strategies could reduce these costs.

Keywords: Germany; demographic ageing; diseases; health; life styles; public health; smoking (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J1 Z0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 21 pages
Date: 2024
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-036

DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-036

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