Assessing the agreement between microsimulated and register-based kin counts in Sweden

Liliana P. Calderón-Bernal, Diego Alburez-Gutierrez, Martin Kolk and Emilio Zagheni
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Liliana P. Calderón-Bernal: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Diego Alburez-Gutierrez: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Martin Kolk: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Emilio Zagheni: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany

No WP-2025-020, MPIDR Working Papers from Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany

Abstract: Estimating kinship networks is a data-intensive undertaking, usually conducted using empirical sources or demographic models. Although empirical data, such as population registers, provide observed individual-level information, they are limited by scarcity, truncation and survivorship bias. Demographic models, including microsimulation, require less detailed data, but they often minimally account for population heterogeneity, family similarity and multipartner fertility. This study examines the agreement of kin counts (from grandparents to grandchildren) between SOCSIM microsimulation outputs and Swedish population registers for cohorts born between 1915 and 2017. The results show that microsimulation closely approximates mean kin numbers and reasonably reflects parity distributions. Microsimulation underestimates kin for recent cohorts not affected by truncation, but provides a more accurate representation of kin for older cohorts with missing parent–child links. These findings highlight the utility of microsimulation for reconstructing kinship when only population-level rates are available, supporting its application in kinship analyses, both historical and projected.

Keywords: Sweden; kinship; microsimulation; population registers (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J1 Z0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 50 pages
Date: 2025
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp and nep-dem
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https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2025-020.pdf (text/html)
https://github.com/liliana-calderon/SOCSIM_Registers (text/html)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-020

DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2025-020

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