Modeling international migration flows by integrating multiple data sources

Maciej J. Dańko, Emanuele Del Fava, Arkadiusz Wiśniowski and Emilio Zagheni
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Maciej J. Dańko: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Emanuele Del Fava: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Emilio Zagheni: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany

No WP-2026-020, MPIDR Working Papers from Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany

Abstract: Migration has become a significant source of population change at the global level, with broad societal implications. Although understanding the drivers of migration is critical to enacting effective policies, theoretical advances in the study of migration processes have been limited by the lack of data on flows of migrants, or by the fragmented nature of these data. In this work, we build on existing probabilistic modeling strategies to develop a statistical framework for integrating different types of data on migration flows. We offer estimates, as well as associated measures of uncertainty, for inflows and outflows among 31 European countries, by combining administrative and household survey data from 2002 to 2022. Methodologically, we demonstrate the added value of survey data when there is lack of administrative data or they show poor quality. Additionally, we examine how the free movement of workers in Europe, resulting from the historical EU enlargement, has impacted migration flows. The paper is accompanied by a shiny app that includes underlying data, metadata, and allows flexible presenting of the results.

Keywords: Europe; international migration; migration flow; migration measurement; models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J1 Z0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 21 pages
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2026-020

DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2026-020

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