Combining a Survey Experiment with Lifecycle Models to Evaluate Pronatalist Policies

Joshua Goldstein, Christos Koulovatianos, Jian Li and Carsten Schröder

No 2171, Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin from DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research

Abstract: We develop a three-step procedure for ex-ante policy evaluation. It combines (i) a vignette survey that randomizes out-of-sample policies (child allowances and external childcare subsidies) to infer fertility responses; (ii) two applied-theory lifecycle models estimated on external microdata; and (iii) the inserting of the randomized policies into the models’ estimated fertility decision rules to obtain model-based fertility predictions for the vignette respondents, thus cross-validating these predictions with their fertility responses. These steps, applied to the United States and Germany, enable comparable out-of-sample policy evaluation across surveys and models, suggesting how to use vignettes as a compass for model specification.

Keywords: Childcare; fertility; labor supply; vignette; lifecycle models; pronatalist policies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C83 D10 D91 J13 J18 J38 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 48 p.
Date: 2026
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