DIW's 2009 Fall Forecast: Key Economic Trends

Christian Dreger, Kerstin Bernoth, Franziska Bremus, Karl Brenke, Roberta Colavecchio, Burcu Erdogan, Stefan Kooths, Vladimir Kuzin, Dorothea Lucke, Charlotte Senftleben and Sebastian Weber

Weekly Report, 2009, vol. 5, issue 31, 216-217

Abstract: Following an unprecedented contraction in GDP, the German economy returns to expansion. Growth will be modest in 2010, however, as the forces of the recovery are not yet stable. This is the key result of the Autumn outlook of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW). DIW expects Germany's GDP to grow by 1.3% in 2010. While this figure is higher than the forecast for the entire euro zone (+0.8%), it is not cause for celebration: Next year's growth is too low to compensate for the decline in output since the start of the crisis. By the end of 2010, Germany's GDP will have returned to its level at the beginning of 2006.

Keywords: Economic outlook; Business cycle forecast; Consumption; Foreign trade; Labour market (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E66 F1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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