The Impact of US Sanctions on Food Security: Evidence from a Global Panel

Chengjiu Sun () and Shanshan Wang ()
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Chengjiu Sun: Nankai University
Shanshan Wang: Nankai University

No 202612, Working Papers from Center for Global Policy Analysis, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University

Abstract: We examine the impact of U.S. sanctions on food security using a panel of 185 economies over 1990-2017, linking the World Food Programme (WFP) multidimensional food security indicator system to sanction episodes. Using difference-in-differences identification strategy and an event-study design, we show that sanctions significantly reduce food security in target countries, widening the gap with non-sanctioned countries by about 30 percent. Effects are concentrated in food access and stability-key dimensions of household food affordability and resilience-and are primarily driven by trade and financial restrictions. Mechanism analysis indicates that sanctions operate through both supply and demand channels. On the supply side, they reduce food imports and domestic production. On the demand side, they lower income, raise inflation and unemployment, and weaken political stability. Notably, the sanction impacts are strongest in low- and lower-middle-income countries, where food systems are more vulnerable to external shocks. These results highlight substantial and uneven humanitarian costs of sanctions for food security.

Keywords: Economic sanctions; Food security; Event Study; United States; Trade disruptions; Agricultural production; Developing countries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F14 F51 O13 O19 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 41
Date: 2026-05
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