 MEXICAN MAQUILA INDUSTRY OUTLOOK. A Quantitative Space-Time AnalysisF. Javier Trivez (), Angel Mauricio Reyes Terrón and Francisco Javier Aliaga Lordemann Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, 2009, vol. 9, issue 1 Abstract: The aim of this article is to analyse the current situation and the short and mid term outlook of the maquila export industry in Mexico. The purpose is to carry out an analysis of quantitative economic conjuncture, by conveniently combining the necessary elements. Therefore, we have used an empiric base- relevant information expressed in monthly statistical time series of the Mexican value added of export income charged by maquila service (VAECMS) in national and state levels- and quantitative methods (statistical-econometrics techniques). Under this framework, we present a methodological proposal in order to analyse ARIMA models with outliers and calendar effects, then we use a reduced model for the signal extraction. The trend-cycle component is the most suitable way to consider the underlying evolution. From this component and from the growth rate and inertial behaviour we are able to extract the major conclusions of the current Mexican export maquila situation in general as well as in detail in the principal states of the country. Keywords: Conjunctural Analysis; Signal Extraction; Underlying; Evolution; Underlying Growth; ARIMA Models; Outliers; Forecast. (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eaa:eerese:v:9:y2009:i:9_2 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article More articles in Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies from Euro-American Association of Economic Development |
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