Are the recent oil price increases set to last?

Irma Alonso Alvarez and Frauke Skudelny

Economic Bulletin Boxes, 2018, vol. 2

Abstract: Oil prices increased from around USD 45 per barrel at end-June 2017 to about USD 65 per barrel at the beginning of March 2018. The main drivers of this increase were stronger than expected growth in global demand, the strategy adopted by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-OPEC countries to adjust their production – partly offset by rising US production – and geopolitical events. This box analyses these factors, based on a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, and assesses whether they are likely to persist. JEL Classification: C32, F53, Q41, Q43

Keywords: oil demand; oil production; oil supply; OPEC; SVAR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-03
Note: 176751
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecb:ecbbox:2018:0002:1

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