Mapping the maze: a system-wide analysis of commercial real estate exposures and risks

Pierce Daly, Ellen Ryan and Oscar Schwartz Blicke

Macroprudential Bulletin, 2024, vol. 25

Abstract: This article analyses the complex linkages between commercial real estate (CRE) markets and the financial system. Examining data from a wide range of sources this article presents the first system-wide mapping of CRE exposures in the euro area. The exercise identifies several sectors – real estate companies, real estate investment funds and real estate investment trusts – with particularly large CRE exposures. Structural vulnerabilities among these key players increase their exposure to CRE market shocks and the likelihood that they could amplify these shocks. In the case of real estate investment funds, highlighting the need to develop a comprehensive macroprudential framework to address liquidity vulnerabilities. Moreover, the complexity of CRE exposures that arise from extensive debt and equity linkages between these key owners of CRE and their financiers adds a further layer of risk, with the potential to exacerbate uncertainty and feedback loops. Findings underline the importance of closely monitoring links between CRE and the financial system and continuing work to close data gaps related to these markets. JEL Classification: G21, G22, G23, G28, R33

Keywords: banks; commercial real estate; interconnectedness; leverage; liquidity mismatch; real estate companies; real estate investment funds; REITs (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-11
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