Budgetary forecasts in Europe - the track record of stability and convergence programmes

Rolf Strauch, Mark Hallerberg and Juergen von Hagen

No 307, Working Paper Series from European Central Bank

Abstract: We analyse the performance of budgetary and growth forecasts of all stability and convergence programmes submitted by EU member states over the last decade. Differences emerge for the bias in budgetary projections across countries. As a second step we explore whether economic, political and institutional factors can explain this pattern. Our analysis indicates that the cyclical position and the form of fiscal governance are major determinants of forecast biases. Projected changes in the budgetary position are mainly affected by the cycle, the need of convergence before EMU and by electoral cycles. JEL Classification: C53, E17, H62

Keywords: budget processes; Fiscal forecasting; forecast evaluation; Stability and Growth Pact (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004-02
Note: 339130
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (111)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp307.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Budgetary Forecasts in Europe – The Track Record of Stability and Convergence Programmes (2004)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2004307

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Paper Series from European Central Bank 60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Official Publications ().